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After dealing with the brush and scraggly runts of half-living trees, it was time to deal with the monster
weeds. Many of these were exotics such as eucalyptus and acacia, but others were merely out of their normal
place, such as the firs up on the ridge. The latter, I came to judge as an artifice of fire suppression. As
mentioned earlier, several overhung power lines, but, because there was more than 10 feet of clearance, the
power company wouldn’t touch them. Public Utilities Commission specifications, you know. None were healthy.
(One was "S" shaped, had five tops with a dead spike up the middle, and termites thirty feet up from the
bottom.) All were less than 40 years old. $800 later, down they came. Luckily a friend of mine hauled off the
logs to make something of them or it would have cost a lot more time.
Try dealing with a 4' diameter eucalyptus tree over 150' tall without heavy equipment. We had a half dozen
such trees and scads of smaller ones. The branches can be 12-18" in diameter. If they are growing among trees
you want to keep, you have to climb them and perhaps even lower the branches on a cable block... When you climb
them to take them apart from the top, it takes a lot of cutting which takes a bigger saw and LOTS of trips
down for gas, oil, food and water and then its back up again. It takes a while. Two-foot long rounds can weigh
a couple of hundred pounds and branches half a ton.
One of these monsters, a four-footer, was arching way over a public road, loaded up on its own weight like a
giant catapult. Under a load like that, it can split and run a crack down the trunk that kills the climber
cabled to the tree. We pulled it back over center with a D-6 cat and a BIG winch. It crunched a nice madrone
on the way down, but the euc is gone. The madrone resprouted from its roots. It was worth the trade.
After you have gone through the considerable project of getting one of these monsters down without killing
anybody, crushing any structures, blocking a public road, taking down power lines, or destroying bunches of
trees, there is still the problem of getting rid of all that mass. That takes heavy equipment too, unless you
want to leave four-foot diameter rounds scattered about.
Who wants to split 50 cords and figure out how to sell it? It was a high school dropout with a splitter and
a dump truck. How did he get them out?
That takes a road. One of the reasons we bought the place was that it had lots of roads to get to the trees,
do the work, and get them out. Though eucalyptus makes dandy pellets, nobody wanted them enough to cut them
down for me. At least they paid for hauling them away and didn’t go to waste.
Then there were the acacias. They look innocuous. They aren’t terribly big. There were hundreds of them.
The problem is that they fall over, regularly, and lay on top of each other in a 30' thick tangle. The darned
things load up under the weight of their relatives and have very slick bark on denuded trunks. The trick is
cutting the mess apart without the pieces unloading suddenly and snapping at you like a bad jungle movie, or
sliding down the others on top of the woodsman trapped in the tangle with a running chainsaw. It was scary.
Most people use a bulldozer. It was nearly ten years before they were all gone, and new trees are still
sprouting every year. One thing about eucalyptus and acacia, they do burn hot.
The broom sprouts by the tens of thousands every year. We also get to fight back the invading thistles,
pasture grasses, hairy cat’s ear... but there is compensation. The oaks responded gladly, some have grown
fifteen feet in but a decade. The ground covers are coming back as an aromatic carpet of roses, poison oak,
honeysuckle orchids, yerba buena, jasmine, hedge nettle, native blackberries, numerous wildflowers, and various
ferns. There are thousands of variegated irises now and even some scarlet columbine. There are dozens of new
lilac bushes in two colors, one new to us, Ceanothus thyrissiflorus. There is new monkeyflower, toyon,
yerba santa, coyote bush, grease bush, buckeye, manzanita, and black sage, all now growing in and around a
forest floor that had been nearly dead or overrun with pests, because a hardwood forest had been thinned. Now
after ten years, we are finally planting, replacing poorly structured older bushes and trees with transplanted
juveniles that, with space, time, and a few ashes, now have a chance to grow.
& Timber and Fuel Management: The Residential
Buffer
The West Coast has a climate that is conducive to vegetative growth. The summers are long and dry.
Relative humidity is low. It is a combination that insures the potential for periodic fires.
We know that historically some fires were humanly set, although perhaps we may never know how often (summer
lightning in this area is rare). The process reduced average vegetative cover, trimmed low branches, provided
nutrients, and scarified various seeds for germination. Many plants in these mountains cannot reproduce without
it. Frequent fires progress relatively slowly and leave sufficient cover for escaping animals. Frequent broadcast
burning is a process that we have, perhaps ignorantly interrupted.
We can’t have a fire like that. There is too much fuel.
These mountains are a series of narrow, steep-walled canyons that might as well be chimneys. When the
conditions are right: hot, steep, dry, and overgrown, the rising column of combusting gases generates high
winds. The condition is called a firestorm. Temperatures reach 1,700°F. The winds blow 60 miles per hour. The
flames rise over 300 feet. Burning embers fly over a mile and start new fires of their own. Try fighting a fire
like that. CDF can’t. They have to let it burn, until either the weather changes or the fire runs out of fuel.
We don’t dare let one get going. There is too much to lose.
In California, the minimum clearance, between combustibles and a single-family residence for a house to be
insured in a rural area is 30 feet. Assume a house in a transitional forest region, typical in Santa Cruz County.
Most use electricity to pressurize their water (In a fire, the power is the first thing to go). Not a few have
embrittled PVC or polyethylene water pipes on top of the ground. Many stand on 4X4 wooden stilts with wooden
lath skirts and are sheathed with redwood shingles over tarpaper, with inadequate roofing and tree droppings in
the rain gutters. The trees are huge, often lean, and have heavy branches overhanging the houses.
How much information is needed to estimate the scope and risk of a loss? Is the sheathing material stucco,
siding, or shingles? Does it have a deck overhanging a steep slope? If the house is above a slope of dense
conifers or bay trees, triple that 30 feet, at least. If it is nestled in redwoods, how old and how dense are
they? How much undergrowth is there? What kinds of bushes there are, how old, and how they are distributed makes
a huge difference. How much water is available at what pressure? Are the roads adequate for reasonable access?
Do the people know how and where to evacuate? Will the fire crews be able to get in while people are running for
their lives?
The price of residential insurance coverage is determined by a rating of the roof material, the age of the
building, and how far the house is from the nearest fire station. Think about the above. Should all houses have
the same fire control specifications and pay the same insurance, regardless of the external circumstances? If
the house meets the 30-foot minimum then, if it burns, the insurers have to pay and pass on the cost to the entire
state? Does that self-defeating character sound familiar?
Insurance is a State-regulated system.
If we were to reduce the fuel risk by removing some of the fuel before a burn, we could manage these fires.
The problem is that it would cost a lot of time and money and would upset some powerful people. That means it
won’t get done unless somebody can pay for at least part of it by selling logs.
Most of the urban professionals who inhabit rural forests think that a forest choked with brush and scraggly
trees is "natural." Their faith in forest preservation is unchallenged by the tragic personal experience of a
firestorm. Many share a cultural history of activism against environmental abuse. Their representatives feed
off that angst and are now forcing passage of regulations that may eliminate the very forestry practices that
can reduce and control the fuel. Because of the restrictions on logging, there are also fewer people with the
opportunity, capital, and trained personnel to fight these fires safely.
The public has demanded rules protecting a socialized commons: "clean air." A rule system can only regulate
human sources of atmospheric pollutants. "Natural" air isn’t clean. When we have controlled burns with planned
ignitions, they cause "air pollution." If it is a wildfire, the media call it "smoke."
Regulating prescribed fire into oblivion may protect CDF and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) from
accountability, but it gives us a system that fails its purpose. It is assured to destroy the historic fire
balance of the forest and has elevated the risk of fatal conflagration to inevitable.
Environmental activists think they have a better idea of how to manage the inevitable catastrophic fire.
Call it "inevitable" and let it burn. It is a policy that has not been subjected to serious scrutiny. When we
have conflagrations, there is a real possibility that recovery to pre-suppression condition will be impossible.
This is largely because of the threat of exotic weeds and the loss of indigenous species. Conflagrations are a
risk to biodiversity through habitat conversion and subsequent species loss. Restoration requires planting and
rearing of local natives. One can do irreversible harm to local stocks by going into an area with substitute
cultivars. To have a sufficient inventory takes preparation, propagation specialists, and facilities. Sometimes
native plants are very tricky to propagate, especially by seed. Animal collection is even more problematic
because there are issues of behavior modification. To have replacement native species requires either planning
or limited scope.
Would government agencies and environmental activists destroy forest ecosystems over the entire coastal
region, put thousands of lives at risk, and waste billions in capital the name of protecting urban air quality
and a social preference for shade? Yes. That is what a democratized commons can do.
Every summer in Santa Cruz County, there are many days with temperatures over 90°F. When the wind blows out
to sea, the firefighters hold their breath while the RH drops to 15%. There hasn’t been a fire anywhere in the
area for over fifty years. The fuel load is vastly higher than that which fed the Santa Barbara fire in 1997
or the Oakland Hills fire of 1991, and the infrastructure is far worse. There is only one road in most
residential areas, usually but a single lane, often miles long. These roads eventually lead to State Highway 9,
which has but two lanes and in many places neither shoulders nor interconnecting bypasses.
The firefighters don’t dare let one get going. It is almost like an addiction. There is no doubt of an
eventual day of reckoning. On days with high fire potential, they fly the bombers full of fire-retardant
pre-positioned in the air. Infrared sensors have replaced the watchtowers of old. They keep putting out the
skirmishes, but they know that someday, the "inevitable" will happen and a small fire will become a disaster.
If the conditions are right, if the wind is blowing hard enough, if the relative humidity is low, if it’s hot,
and if the ignition point is remote, they won’t be able to stop it.
It just has to be big enough that it was not their fault. It’s not. It’s ours.
One burning log or panicked driver blocking the highway and all the roads will be choked, bumper to Beemer,
with people trying to escape, perhaps thousands of them. The fire trucks won’t get in. The people won’t get out.
They’ll call it an Act of God.
Motive & Means
The obvious question regarding this proposal is: "Where will we get the MONEY, time, individual energy, and
expertise to fix a problem like this?"
We are spending the money now, wittingly or not. The Oakland Fire of 1991 cost $1.7 billion. If one looks at
residential insurance as a risk management business instead of regulated bank protection, then we are obviously
not managing fuel around homes effectively because insurance is not priced according to risk. Were one to
consider the total economic cost of a firestorm, homes in an overgrown forest are way underinsured. If one
includes the ecological costs, such forests are at astronomical risk.
A firestorm is a capital loss no matter who makes money on promises to pay it back. An insurance policy on a
$300,000 structure with a $2,000 deductible costs around $900 per year. This calculates to a replacement payback
period less a return to the stockholders (assuming no inflation), of perhaps as little as… 75 years without a
loss? One might conclude that it is unlikely that the true cost of risk plus a reasonable profit is reflected by
insurance premiums. When considering the impact of fire settlements upon future insurance rates statewide it is
obvious that one can play that game only so many times.
Suburban residents in Santa Cruz County are demanding that the Board of Supervisors provide them with either
timber harvest rules or zoning laws that maintain the forest on someone else’s land to their liking. For most of
them, their liking is a vastly reduced harvest with "no cut buffers" around riparian and residential areas. What
they are demanding is for the rest of the State to bear the cost of an unacceptable risk and subsidize thereby
their capital gain in residential real estate while the policy does more harm than good.
The real estate industry would find higher property value in a gardened appearance to the forest over and
above what they find so attractive now. They surely do not want to deal with the impact of a catastrophic fire.
The only reason these forests are a draw for new homebuyers is that they are still there. At the rate houses are
being built, and given the accruing fuel load, these conditions won’t last forever. Everybody except the
activists seems to understand that.
How disinvested are forest landowners? Where else can you find an industry with billions in assets and no idea
within 25% how much that is? Why should some landowners have to cut more trees to pay for permission to do it,
while other forests are choking to death and facing eventual annihilation?
Politicians have found environmentalist support to be a direct line to higher office. If they get saddled with
a lawsuit the size of Montana for taking the forest the voters will be stuck with a resulting tax bill or fewer
services. If the whole thing burns to a crisp, it won’t look good for their future. Would they like to have a
way for the lawsuit go away and run for higher office upon a popular solution to a longstanding problem?
Equal Opportunity
Maybe we should try another way? Though the principles in this book are scalable to large, complex problems,
such things are usually comprised of components that are more tractable. No management scheme should be adopted
without tests and trials. This proposal is an experiment to develop means to use free markets to manage competing
interests in the forest at the rural-suburban interface. It is a first step in management contracts, risk-based
pricing, and best practice timber and fire management.
This plan can deliver a forest that local residents would find aesthetically pleasing, provide a legitimate
income to the forest landowner, and safely reduce the fuel load around many of these homes. It would restore a
more natural balance of flora and perhaps fire. It invests capital in forest health and can differentiate to
local circumstance. It respects individual tastes, and pools risk to temper radical ideas. It might lead to
organized, neighborhood-based forest management and habitat restoration activities.
There is an obvious opportunity in the rural suburban forest. If the homeowner really wants to live in an old
growth forest, then perhaps they would purchase a management plan from the landowner that will deliver upon that
goal and reduce the risk that it won’t ever happen. Perhaps that risk-reduction business might finance some of
the work?
Were insurance rates reflective of reality there would be incentive for homeowners to thin for an effective
distance around structures. It might seem that the preference of the insurer would be bare dirt, but it isn’t
that simple. There are other risks involved, for example: landslides, falling trees, and floods. Roots hold
hillsides together. Vegetative cover reduces droplet impingement erosion and adsorbs a fraction of the runoff.
Trees protect aesthetic property value but they might need pruning. Drainage design is an art form. Who is best
qualified to make that call, among all these competing ecological needs? Foresters and timber operators are.
The insurance industry could retain foresters specializing in fire ecology and vegetation management to assess
the home for its balance of risks as sets the price of coverage. The policy price can be scaled according to the
risk score. Given liability for false assessment as balanced against competitive need for sales there would be no
incentive for extortion.
The homeowners could then hire the work or perform it themselves under direction and training from a forester
(yup, homeowner education). Properties under suburban forest hazard management would then qualify for an
insurance pricing scheme based upon the selected landscaping product (even if the product is "no cut"). It could
be a range of products, from a mixed parkland forest of majestic oaks and herbaceous groundcovers, to a plan
delivering something similar to an old growth redwood stand. There could be a lot in between. There could be
various prices for the degree of attention to detail, proximity to the house, value of the stand, and degree of
risk. Under InsCert, these plans could recover some of the cost by selling logs without a permit. Just imagine
how homeowners might feel knowing that they were participating in the restoration of local habitat instead of
making a mistake. Wouldn’t it be preferable that the money went into restoring the land, rather than rebuilding
after a holocaust?
Now, what happens if some of the land that must be thinned in order to qualify for the insurance benefit is
owned by an adjacent timberland owner? This is where the market in land use contracts comes into the equation.
The adjacent landowner could sell a contract for whatever applicable style of forestry the homeowner prefers.
The difference in present value, between the timber resource when managed for maximum capital gain and managed as
preferred by the purchaser of the contract, could set the price of the contract. It would cost less if integrated
into a larger harvest plan as a sector operation.
The forest landowner or management contractor would collect and integrate scientific data, to be applied to a
plan of hazard reduction, mitigation of exotic species, propagation of local natives, or preparation for a
controlled burn. The coordination of specialties, required to complete the work under a fiduciary, provides the
means to balance competing interests. That management market creates an incentive to get the work done at low
cost. Insured accountability provides reason not to take too many risks.
The thinning work can be done and surplus logs sold for renewable fuels, pulp, or lumber, thus offsetting part
of the cost. The insurance policy price increase can be used to finance the initial hazard reduction work over an
extended term if a maintenance contract is let for the property. If the jobs look too small for the LTO to
consider, the residents would have reason to organize in order to bring in economies of scale.
The timber operators want the work, but more importantly, they want steady work. It helps them size their
operations and equipment to available jobs. It maintains a steady work force, which improves teamwork and allows
for continuous training and higher levels of skill. Would that reduce mistakes?
The local mills want the logs, but even more they want to manage the forest on the stump much the way larger
concerns do. This reduces inventory costs for decks of logs outside the mill. It allows a rapid response to price
changes.
Foresters would also appreciate continuous management of larger acreage without the need to concern themselves
with maximizing production. This might come as a shock to some people, but foresters become foresters BECAUSE
THEY LOVE FORESTS. To participate in the management of forests for aesthetic value might be regarded as a
privilege. To return lands restore fire cycles, to get rid of exotic pests, to do scientific work and to see the
lands they love maintained as productive forest in perpetuity, would befit their personal career goals.
There are arguments that determining risk associated with fuels is a matter of subjective judgement. This will
remain true until sufficient experiments are conducted and measurement methods optimized. There is a huge
financial incentive to reduce additional risk associated ignorance. There is an array of technical opportunities
for this kind of knowledge development work that a rural association of forest landowners could complete and sell.
There is a risk that homeowners with high fuel levels inflict, not only upon themselves, but also upon the
entire area. Those who do not pay for risk reduction should bear an increasing fraction of the remaining
collective risk as others complete the work. There needs to remain a group motive to assist, educate, motivate,
or drive out, the uncooperative individual as a socializing force for neighborhood cooperation. If but one
remaining person wants to bear nearly the total financial cost of additional risk to both themselves and the
entire neighborhood and also bear the social pressure on the part of their neighbors for the privilege of a
half-dead Monterey Pine tree leaning over their shake roof let them pay for it. It’s a free country, or it
ought to be. The practice of threatening policy cancellation does not work. Price risk instead.
There are also neighborhood capital assets that figure into total risk. Roads should provide a functional
means of evacuation to a safe site. Participation in neighborhood evacuation planning should be part of the
contract. Once a total neighborhood has achieved a hazard reduction attainment, a second collective insurance
discount could be derived.
Perhaps such a realignment of interests would form a more functional political majority. It would be
comprised of residents who understood the risk of a fire or trees falling on their houses and preferred a more
natural look to the forest, forest landowners who want to thin their forests and make a buck, State fire and
regulatory officials tired of failure, insurers tired of losing money, and local banks afraid of ruin, as well
as a group of more progressive environmentalists.
This plan reverses the current trend of asking fewer acres to produce more wood. The harvests would be
smaller in percentage but from more acreage than before. There would probably be a larger total harvest. The
plan raises total revenue for foresters, loggers, and mills and raises tax revenue. Most important: It would be
a way to help preserve timberland as a healthier forest, finding its highest value without political distortion.
It beats being trapped and burned to death by a random conflagration every time.
Four Fingers and a Sore Thumb
What needs to be done to make it all happen? It will clearly take action on the part of several interests.
This section briefly lists suggestions for each.
Insurers and the Certification Enterprise
- Coordinate actuarial research on fire loss with landowners’ associations to prioritize research to
account ecological risk and provide the data.
- Institute certification programs to inspect properties for fire risk scoring.
- Fight for total deregulation of homeowners’ insurance.
- Sponsor research in controlled burn containment methods. Fund startups that introduce products and processes
toward that end.
- Maintain servers that have bulletin boards of experiments, data, process documents and procedures,
educational links, contractors, resources, and other documentation.
Forest Landowners Associations
- Organize and prepare for certification.
- Organize collection of census and inventory data into usable and communicable formats. Organize tutorials
with verification.
- Collect and disseminate process documentation as a library service.
- Form advisory groups, and list contractors to collect applicable scientific documents and post them to a
website. Bundle them as management products.
Neighborhood Associations
- Coordinate neighborhood disaster planning activities. Select meeting sites in the event of a disaster,
and coordinate drills with agencies.
- Maintain communications. Notify of transfers in ownership. Assist integration of new neighbors. Serve as a
focal point for communications with insurers, certification enterprises, government and industry.
Industry
- Associations of certified fire contractors and Licensed Timber Operators (LTO) can compile the results
of burning experiments. Individual practitioners can consolidate them into competing plans for sale that balance
risks with aesthetics.
- Certified fire replacement nurseries can provide the best available plant collection services and propagation
techniques, determine necessary inventories and coordinate revegetation.
- Pest control experts and local nurseries could learn the best means to reduce the cost of control of weeds
after a burn and while assisting the return of natives.
Government
As was discussed earlier, one of the main barriers to this plan is the cost of getting a Timber Harvest
Plan (THP) and with it, pleasing every other agency with its fingers in the pie. Under this proposal, there is
no THP. It is insured, certified best practice management. No permit. Government is in the way. Government
should instead:
- Help inculcate neighborhood government to finance local capital projects. The Community Services District,
California Government Code Sections 61,000 – 61,802 is a good example.
- Disseminate and augment plant and animal identification resources, especially exotic species.
- Disseminate pest lifecycle data and processes for pest control.
- Amend air quality regulations to ease controlled burning.
- Learn that there is such a thing as a balance of risks.
State and Federal law must be amended concerning controlled burns where fire is a natural part of the
ecology. When we plan ignitions, we have choices about the atmospheric conditions that minimize the air
pollution impact of smoke. If the fuel isn’t burned, the carbon will be exhaled as CO2 from
fungi. When we don’t have fires, we increase airborne spores that contribute to allergies and asthma. Air
quality authorities should amend regulations concerning pellet furnaces for central heating. It is a cheap,
renewable way to make fuel reduction more profitable and its combustion less polluting. The Clean Air Act
must reconsider "attainment targets" where demonstrably natural polluting processes exist.
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), EPA, and Cal. Dept. of Fish and Game (CDFG) should realize
that their plans to protect salmonid populations should balance the risk of siltation released by timber
harvest operations against the risks of stream pollution resulting from residential construction and
catastrophic firestorms. These people are causing more problems than they solve, as shall be discussed in
Chapters 3 and 4.
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